Empire Déjà vu

Check the satellite view of world history and you see the same amazing pattern. A time-lapse photograph of the world, extending the period of written history, would show the deja vu element.

As the recent events in the world are played out, this coming together is predictable. But that is another subject and blog. The one I want to write on here, is the repetitive history of the empire.

Generally speaking, there have been nine dominant empires in history. From the Egyptians (5000 years ago) to the USA in the present. Definition of dominant is ‘the most powerful in the world, controlling significant tracts of land and instilling their culture’.

It always follows the same routine path.

A) commencement from nowhere; no hopers; nothing to signify future success (non-entities who struggle to survive).

B) they get a foothold and some form of unity - this builds an essential confidence.

C) opposition phase - existence is threatened. There is always a physical threat, but also can be extended to economic and unity threats.

D) having survived, their is a predictable chronological sequence.

• the belief phase (a big high)
• a grand vision is now part of the future
• feeling of mission and element of fervour
• physical strength and belief of invincibility
• conquest and expansion
• economic bigness
• scientific development and innovation
• arts, culture and intellectual content

E) Decay Phase

• belief of superiority over all others
• arrogance
• self indulgence and waste
• decay, value system declines, leading to social degradation

F) Decline Phase

• disunity of purpose and population starts infighting
• society starts disintegrating
• economic reversal leading to disasters
• currency and trade collapse

G) Destruction Phase

• a challenger appears ...simultaneous to the decline phase. Sometimes it is visible. Others come from the left field unexpectedly. Five years before Yarmuk, Rome did not suspect it will lose its grip to the Muslim Arabs. The Caliph in Baghdad never thought of the fast emerging Mongols as a danger.

• decay is complete by the time actual disintegration and destruction takes place.

This is happening right now and very visibly. Average age of empire in history 250 years. Average age of currency domination 100 years. Do the maths, it does not take much grey matter to figure out the present events.

Sarfaraz A Rehman: You never know what you will keep with you, your w...

Sarfaraz A Rehman: You never know what you will keep with you, your w...: I read the heading and the words had a cascading effect on my life memories. It is true, in your teens, you do not really know what i...

You never know what you will keep with you, your whole life!

I read the heading and the words had a cascading effect on my life memories. It is true, in your teens, you do not really know what is going to happen and one knows not, what will last a lifetime. Your horizon is lower and nearer, life has yet to teach you lessons, so one thinks of childhood and teens as permanent.  

The most established institution in your life are parents (if you are blessed enough, to have them around by teenage). No one really tells you, but they are not permanent and one day, if you live long enough they shall depart. 

Siblings are next to permanent. If you are the oldest, then it’s likely that they will outlast you. But somehow, age, children, jobs, distance all conspire. It is a relationship which changes from the teen years. By the time you get to my age, it is not the same. Important of course, but subtle changes have happened due to circumstances. 

Spouses and children come later in life, normally after university, which means mid 20 and later. So they are not lifelong either. 

Friends are another one. Like siblings, time causes change and so the relationships alter over the decades. Again no lifelong permanence.

So what do you actually keep with you all your life?

A) values...once ingrained, values are difficult to alter, whatever the environment or circumstances.

B) beliefs...some beliefs are unshakeable. They do not change despite all trials.

C) songs...there are some songs which last a lifetime (I have about twenty).

D) books...maybe a few. Most disappear with age. Rarely does a book last a lifetime. I can think of only one for me. And, that is tied up to my belief ie. the Quran. A few have lasted since my early 20s. Lord of the Rings, Great Expectations, Ozymandias (poem) etc (a dozen, perhaps).

E) memories. School, and childhood especially. Memories of people long gone. Also memories which seem insignificant, but are essential in your make up. My memory of sampling jungle-jalebi in childhood remains succinct and powerful - unfortunately, the jungle-jalebi fruit  has largely disappeared from Karachi.  A time long ago, remembered by the little things left behind.

F) pictures...faded black and white ones and some bleached coloured ones. Eid, Birthday, school, holidays, many who are gone (but remain in pics).

G) preferences...these are surprisingly steady throughout life. Colours, taste of food, preferences for faces (oval, square, mixed) attitude (light hearted, serious, intense). Our comfort zone is in a surprisingly narrow band. 

To what end do we carry some things a lifetime? They are our identity, enmeshed in what we are. That’s fine! It shows we are still human and can feel till our end.

Sarfaraz A Rehman: A Big Heart (a follow-up)

Sarfaraz A Rehman: A Big Heart (a follow-up): I once wrote about a sahaba who had a big heart. The Prophet (saw) thrice stated that this sahaba will be granted heaven, based on his...

A Big Heart (a follow-up)

I once wrote about a sahaba who had a big heart. The Prophet (saw) thrice stated that this sahaba will be granted heaven, based on his bigheartedness. Big, meaning he was generous; not envious; carried no ill will; and was humble. Attempting to inculcate the same is a difficult battle, especially with our social media, consumer orientation and a complex (dog eat dog) society.

Strategically to achieve bigheartedness we need to excel in :-

A) putting total trust in Allah. Simply put, a huge test, because you will be called on to make self sacrifice. This literally means sacrificing time, money or personal space for others. That sacrifice eventually delivers positive results. The balance sheet actually comes out in the black.

  

B) not having an ego. Most of our actions in life are a function of ego. To counter that, it means thinking one is not superior to anyone. Once you get in that space, this inevitably leads to daily challenges. You have to hug and control yourself and behave humbly. It’s a daily battle, but it becomes easier with time and practice.  

C) not judging others. This is not quite ego. Rather, can be your own filters driving your biases. Let the judgement be at Allah’s door. Want a large unfettered heart, then become non-judgmental. As part of this effort, I totally disconnected from Twitter. That medium tends to be mean, aggressive and battles take place on it all the time. On Twitter, one would struggle to have a good view of mankind. Also, one could stop watching news channels, as they create negativity in themselves and fan the flame (news can be obtained online quite easily!). This judgmental drive will test you. You might fail on a daily basis, but you can at least at the end of the day, leave negativity behind and go cleansed into tomorrow.

D) anger and irritation. While this may also be a function of ego, but predominantly is driven by the frequency, speed and expectation of things nowadays. Stop expecting people to behave well, stop expecting people to deliver responsibly, stop expecting that you will get what you want. Generally, this is the easiest of the lot to achieve. And yes we all make mistakes, so when you lose your temper, go back to the concerned person and apologize. Do not become self righteous. A sincere apology now,  delivers wonders later.

E) handling real hurt and unfairness. There are such pains in life. The best one can do, is review ones own errors in life, apologize to others and use these same evaluations to forgive others who have wronged you in turn. Use First Ramadan every year for an evaluation. It should be a specific occasion and by name and event forgive those who might have dealt you a backhander. It is easier said than done....Through the rest of Ramadan, you should constantly remind yourself of the forgiveness given. By the end of Ramadan, generally, the forgiveness will be real and embedded.

The above is my personal formula to attempt a difficult and elusive gold basket. Needless to say, one is still striving to make it work, but it does lead to a lot of personal satisfaction and some element of clear conscience.


https://sarfarazar.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-big-heart.html

The Strategy Spectrum

                                                           *Lovepik.com

Recently, asked to explain strategy in the spectrum of life and decision making, the best I could think of was to visualise two different stories.

The Elevated View

Imagine you are on a busy street in a large city, caught up on the ground in a traffic snarl. Suddenly, like Icarus and Daedalus, one gets wings. You start rising and spiralling upwards. Soon you are at a bird flight level and can see many roads and most of the city. You realise that the traffic snarl was just for a short juncture and by making a small turn you can go free. The street level is fire-fighting operations and the birds eye view is a tactical level.

Next you keep rising and are at an atmosphere level viewing much of the country. The expanded view is much wider and larger, and yet has fewer details. That is alright, because you realise that the city is not the only place; much beauty and comfort exists in rural areas and other cities. One can move to other places and do other things. We are able to strategise and make larger and more long reaching decisions. That is the strategy level. 

Now, unlike Icarus, you fly higher and nearer the Sun, but do not lose your wings. Up in space you can see the whole world. It’s the most amazing view and is actually a Vision. Once up there, you can do just about everything by simply viewing the world, thinking larger than life and delegating the related strategy to others. This Visionary element is granted to few and far between in a single life.  This is a scale above strategy, but while strategy can more or less be a constant in life, a Vision will come rarely.

On the Ground View

A bunch of people are on a bus, which has broken down in a forested and hilly region. You have been charged to get the others out of there to safety. People are scared and most do not want to leave the safety of the bus. What to do?

First you go outside and climb the top of the bus and look around. Visible on an elevated ground is a lighthouse tower, which is considered to be safety for all. This becomes your Vision. We have to achieve it any which way.

Also visible is a set of open areas along the way to the lighthouse, which can be joined together like dots, to form a rough road to the lighthouse. To form the road to the lighthouse is strategy. 

We then organise a few who are willing to get down and push the bus. The others who are scared stay inside the bus. Our workforce pushes the bus and also clears up hurdles and forms a path. You appoint a manager to coordinate and guide them from the bus top.  So the guys who are doing the ground work are foot soldiers doing the fire fighting and operations. The manager on the top, is aware of wider surroundings and plans the activity from clearing to clearing. So he is doing the guidance and tactical work, ensuring that he keeps the bus moving along.

Lastly, you are also on the bus top, but do not have to worry about the managerial work, as that is someone else’s responsibility. No, you are keeping in sight the various clearings which make the broad  road to the lighthouse. We want to ensure that the strategy of getting to the lighthouse remains intact. Every now and then you get feedback from the manager on progress and difficulties. Using that feedback, you keep adjusting the route a bit, hence ensuring the overall strategy.

This feedback loop is a normal part of reality being shaped into the strategy. Never at any time will the Vision (of safety at the lighthouse) change. True, that once we get to the safety of the lighthouse, then we will review the ‘situation’ to cast a new Vision, but that is after we have achieved our present Vision.

If any are wondering, what a lighthouse is doing on a hilltop, I do not have a credible answer. But it seemed like a nice Vision. 

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Managing by Trial and Error

Slow and sure is out of the door, experimentation, trial and error has landed.



Sarfaraz A Rehman: Managing by Trial and Error: These are turbulent and exciting times. Greenfield, startups and groundbreaking environment inevitably leading to experimentation. The...

Managing by Trial and Error

These are turbulent and exciting times. Greenfield, startups and groundbreaking environment inevitably leading to experimentation. The pace of change; speed of technology; variance in generational thinking and culture; all compel innovations. Slow and sure is out of the door, experimentation, trial and error has landed.

The displayed model is a normal trial and error loop. Repeated iterations, then implement the feedback on results, to find an efficient core. We have all used it in our work. More so, as you go up the corporate ladder. Contrary to what younger management thinks, older senior fogeys are experimenting too, because what they learned years ago is history and the ‘new’ has arrived. 

In today’s world of uncertainty and change, this is a valid method of operating. Hence, I am not writing a justification of the method, as there is no alternative. The blog is more about conditions and attributes required, to be at home in the current environment. Some thoughts are listed below.

• Knowledge of what is happening, e.g. what research is saying.
• Strong analytics, especially in the big data world.
• Listening to and observing others.
• And conversing with others.
• Not having a dogmatic outlook. Do not take things for granted.
• Chew, analyse and think. Impulse can be dangerous nowadays.
• But, also requires fast turnaround and quick decision making.
• Since there is constant change, one can be wrong! Learn to live with that and it means not having an “ego”.
• It does mean having a strong value system. Without this value system, one drifts towards wrong, as the voices are many. 

I would now take this further and add ‘countries and public office’ into the same approach. In dealing with public office, add further tenets to the ones mentioned above.

• Listening to numbers all the time. Not a one off election result.  It means a constant watch on polling insights
• It requires repeated iterations on actions, events and results looping back into ever-changing decisions.
• This leads to gradually capturing the centre ground. Repeated iterations will naturally tend towards the centre. (No wonder political parties today cannot be differentiated)
• The process and environment will look machine like.

Politics and rulers may well go this route in the future. It is something which Angela Merkel has applied over a decade and half in Germany. Looking at what our own Prime Minister is doing, I think it is what his government is also tilting towards. 

There is nothing wrong with this trial and error approach. It can be applied in government, as it can be applied in systems and organisations. We just need to be calm, controlled and follow the attributes to gradually achieve systemic efficiency.

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Time and Money relationship

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Time and Money relationship:                                                                         *worldatlas.com On reviewing insights into a time and money...

Time and Money relationship

                                                                        *worldatlas.com

On reviewing insights into a time and money relationship curve, based on information from the internet, I came to some startling conclusions. Let me caution, these are my own thoughts and may not be correct.

In a lifetime of approximately 80 years (remember today’s world average is already over 70), we essentially live it in three periods:

Pre-adulthood (25 years)

Regular work period (35 years)

Retirement (20 years)

Breaking down the above 80 years into broad activities:

Sleep (30%)

Work  (27%)

Drudgery, exercise, playing, eating, health (21%)

Own time (12%)

Spirituality/religiosity/conscience work (5%)

Miscellaneous (5%) 

'Disposable available money' during the three periods, as a percentage of a whole lifetime, is skewed dramatically towards the retirement period. This happens because you earn little in the pre-adulthood period; have many commitments in the work years; and build up a savings bank just pre-retirement (which is normally a period of less commitments/higher earnings). This is then available as disposable money during the retirement years.

Divide 'disposable available money', in terms of the spending on above named activities. The 'drudgery, exercise, playing, eating, health' activity takes more than 50% of disposable available money; ‘Miscellaneous’ over 40% (in retireiment our expenditure narrows, as our activities narrow).  So the following fascinating conclusions occur.

A) we do not have money most of our lives, while striving to obtain it - i.e. the first 60 years.

B) when we do have money, we are old, unable to use it, and a large portion is spent on health maintenance or recovery. Not on using the available money for enjoyment.

C) 40% of our money is spent on an amorphous/ambiguous ‘Miscellaneous’. This ‘Miscellaneous’ in time spent proportion, is only 5% of our lifetime and that too mostly in our later years. The conclusion derived from this statement is, that ‘Miscellaneous’ spent is either wasted or left as a legacy for our progeny. 

D) so the real question is, why do we struggle, take stress and spoil our health to get money, when it does not benefit us at all?

I am, to say the least, flummoxed.