Empire Déjà vu

Check the satellite view of world history and you see the same amazing pattern. A time-lapse photograph of the world, extending the period of written history, would show the deja vu element.

As the recent events in the world are played out, this coming together is predictable. But that is another subject and blog. The one I want to write on here, is the repetitive history of the empire.

Generally speaking, there have been nine dominant empires in history. From the Egyptians (5000 years ago) to the USA in the present. Definition of dominant is ‘the most powerful in the world, controlling significant tracts of land and instilling their culture’.

It always follows the same routine path.

A) commencement from nowhere; no hopers; nothing to signify future success (non-entities who struggle to survive).

B) they get a foothold and some form of unity - this builds an essential confidence.

C) opposition phase - existence is threatened. There is always a physical threat, but also can be extended to economic and unity threats.

D) having survived, their is a predictable chronological sequence.

• the belief phase (a big high)
• a grand vision is now part of the future
• feeling of mission and element of fervour
• physical strength and belief of invincibility
• conquest and expansion
• economic bigness
• scientific development and innovation
• arts, culture and intellectual content

E) Decay Phase

• belief of superiority over all others
• arrogance
• self indulgence and waste
• decay, value system declines, leading to social degradation

F) Decline Phase

• disunity of purpose and population starts infighting
• society starts disintegrating
• economic reversal leading to disasters
• currency and trade collapse

G) Destruction Phase

• a challenger appears ...simultaneous to the decline phase. Sometimes it is visible. Others come from the left field unexpectedly. Five years before Yarmuk, Rome did not suspect it will lose its grip to the Muslim Arabs. The Caliph in Baghdad never thought of the fast emerging Mongols as a danger.

• decay is complete by the time actual disintegration and destruction takes place.

This is happening right now and very visibly. Average age of empire in history 250 years. Average age of currency domination 100 years. Do the maths, it does not take much grey matter to figure out the present events.

Prejudice leaps forward

Humans are strangely self righteous and tribal about what is not in alignment with their thoughts and familiarity zone. This same thought process is the basis of prejudice and racialism, and in more extreme cases death and destruction.

You see it starkly in human behaviour. Take a nice, suburban middle-aged woman as an example. She is quite honest and caring about people and is always ready to help others. Place her in a public area next to a scruffy, dirty youth. Watch how she reacts. I have seen this a few times at airports and  metros. The otherwise quite nice lady, will be abhorred by the disagreeable presence next to her, and wants to get away, so long as it is not construed as being rude. In the time of Trumpism, nothing is considered rude (that filter has been taken away), so more than likely the lady will change seats.

Why? Because she is now judging and rejecting the presence which is contrary to her image of comfort zone. But has the young scruffy person done someone any harm, has he committed a crime? No! That is what prejudice is. Expand it further and it becomes racialism and sectarianism. Take it a bit further, it leads to death and destruction. Notice the coloured guys who are regularly shot by police in USA, simply on racial profiling. Normally, these police personnel would sit and eat with them, but under stress  they can behave like narrow hateful beings when confronted with the out of the ordinary.

Do not be surprised that suddenly prejudice is appearing in droves in apparently very enlightened societies. The seed had always been present. But it had not been watered for several decades. Today its been watered and prepared to come out and so it is visible in tens of millions. It is going to appear more, because the genie is out of the bottle now. It takes a small time for society to deteriorate, but it can take decades to put them back on the right path again.

Similar events happened some 100 years ago and it took much death and destruction to control it. I hope this time humans find a saner and more peaceful way to put humanity back where it should be. Though my reality says it will be a long rocky road. Sadly! 

Nations, just do not happen!

The breaking news was as usual all about dire consequences of one action or the other. One gets used to it. This is the way of all channels and media world over. Somehow, bad news travels fast, gets more attention and attracts people. Nothing like a good old disaster to get people animated. Anyway, here in Pakistan we have become de-sentisized, as we have plenty of bad news and on top of it, dozens of channels vying for breaking news. More grief!       

All the bad news notwithstanding, I would like to add my two bits to this discussion on how things have become this bad and how we are in a mess. My personal take on it is that it is nature taking its toll. Yes, Nature!    

In the past I have written on our nationhood and blamed our duality of vision. The duality being a desire to be an iconic Muslim homeland and at the same time desiring a strong economic state. We got our wires crossed, losing our vision and in the process ended up doing nothing. However, over time and after due consideration, while I still think we need a vision to take us further - otherwise there is nothing to hold us together - but the reality is that nature is taking its toll.  
    

Let me explain my statement, which I assure you is not an effort to be facetious. In the worlds written history, there have been nine great nations. There have been other good ones, but what we would classically call great, are those who have dominated their period in the world, added to knowledge and their traces are left in the working of the world even today. Historically they have lasted an average of two hundred and fifty years. Want me to count them out? Egypt, Persia, Greece, Rome, China, Arabia, Ottoman Turk, Britain, America. More or less chronologically and another interesting point; there have been no repeats. China might well turn out to be the first repeat.   

Anyway, think of these nations. They were formed layer by layer. The Egyptians took thousands of years to come to a stage of absolute dominance. Same with the Romans.  From the discovery of Romulus and Remus on the banks of the Tiber to Julius Caesar was a good several hundreds of years. These years comprise a coming together, a homogeneity of purpose, a gathering of strength, conquest and respect from others that you are the leaders. Having reached this peak, the decline starts and first society fragments, then economics falls apart and finally the military strength declines. That is the round trip of a nation.      

Now think back to August 1947. When India got independence they had a memory. They remembered the Aryans, then Alexander as he came through the Khyber Pass, later the Huns, Mongols and Babur. They owned the Red Fort and Taj Mahal. This they took as their own. This was as much their history, as Chandragupta Maurya or Ashoka or Ranjit Singh. Their culture was a melting pot of homogeneity and in economics they were working against adversity together.

Then there was Pakistan. We had a seven year history (from 1940 resolution) two clearly varying lands and cultures apart by fifteen hundred miles, a western part which comprised borderland tribes who had only invasion history in common and were diverse. We had nothing binding us, other than a principle and we competed for the same resources. This all was running uphill against history and nature. No wonder! 70 years is minuscule in history, a dot in time. We are children and still learning. When we get to our teens our time will be different and hopefully we will mature one day. This might involve another hundred years for these layers to form. In comparison to other development of nations, I would say maybe we are like the Wild West of USA just now.  

We shall get there Inshallah. Just require patience and faith. Nations just do not happen, they are chiselled into shape.