Managing by Trial and Error

These are turbulent and exciting times. Greenfield, startups and groundbreaking environment inevitably leading to experimentation. The pace of change; speed of technology; variance in generational thinking and culture; all compel innovations. Slow and sure is out of the door, experimentation, trial and error has landed.

The displayed model is a normal trial and error loop. Repeated iterations, then implement the feedback on results, to find an efficient core. We have all used it in our work. More so, as you go up the corporate ladder. Contrary to what younger management thinks, older senior fogeys are experimenting too, because what they learned years ago is history and the ‘new’ has arrived. 

In today’s world of uncertainty and change, this is a valid method of operating. Hence, I am not writing a justification of the method, as there is no alternative. The blog is more about conditions and attributes required, to be at home in the current environment. Some thoughts are listed below.

• Knowledge of what is happening, e.g. what research is saying.
• Strong analytics, especially in the big data world.
• Listening to and observing others.
• And conversing with others.
• Not having a dogmatic outlook. Do not take things for granted.
• Chew, analyse and think. Impulse can be dangerous nowadays.
• But, also requires fast turnaround and quick decision making.
• Since there is constant change, one can be wrong! Learn to live with that and it means not having an “ego”.
• It does mean having a strong value system. Without this value system, one drifts towards wrong, as the voices are many. 

I would now take this further and add ‘countries and public office’ into the same approach. In dealing with public office, add further tenets to the ones mentioned above.

• Listening to numbers all the time. Not a one off election result.  It means a constant watch on polling insights
• It requires repeated iterations on actions, events and results looping back into ever-changing decisions.
• This leads to gradually capturing the centre ground. Repeated iterations will naturally tend towards the centre. (No wonder political parties today cannot be differentiated)
• The process and environment will look machine like.

Politics and rulers may well go this route in the future. It is something which Angela Merkel has applied over a decade and half in Germany. Looking at what our own Prime Minister is doing, I think it is what his government is also tilting towards. 

There is nothing wrong with this trial and error approach. It can be applied in government, as it can be applied in systems and organisations. We just need to be calm, controlled and follow the attributes to gradually achieve systemic efficiency.

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Time and Money relationship

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Time and Money relationship:                                                                         *worldatlas.com On reviewing insights into a time and money...

Time and Money relationship

                                                                        *worldatlas.com

On reviewing insights into a time and money relationship curve, based on information from the internet, I came to some startling conclusions. Let me caution, these are my own thoughts and may not be correct.

In a lifetime of approximately 80 years (remember today’s world average is already over 70), we essentially live it in three periods:

Pre-adulthood (25 years)

Regular work period (35 years)

Retirement (20 years)

Breaking down the above 80 years into broad activities:

Sleep (30%)

Work  (27%)

Drudgery, exercise, playing, eating, health (21%)

Own time (12%)

Spirituality/religiosity/conscience work (5%)

Miscellaneous (5%) 

'Disposable available money' during the three periods, as a percentage of a whole lifetime, is skewed dramatically towards the retirement period. This happens because you earn little in the pre-adulthood period; have many commitments in the work years; and build up a savings bank just pre-retirement (which is normally a period of less commitments/higher earnings). This is then available as disposable money during the retirement years.

Divide 'disposable available money', in terms of the spending on above named activities. The 'drudgery, exercise, playing, eating, health' activity takes more than 50% of disposable available money; ‘Miscellaneous’ over 40% (in retireiment our expenditure narrows, as our activities narrow).  So the following fascinating conclusions occur.

A) we do not have money most of our lives, while striving to obtain it - i.e. the first 60 years.

B) when we do have money, we are old, unable to use it, and a large portion is spent on health maintenance or recovery. Not on using the available money for enjoyment.

C) 40% of our money is spent on an amorphous/ambiguous ‘Miscellaneous’. This ‘Miscellaneous’ in time spent proportion, is only 5% of our lifetime and that too mostly in our later years. The conclusion derived from this statement is, that ‘Miscellaneous’ spent is either wasted or left as a legacy for our progeny. 

D) so the real question is, why do we struggle, take stress and spoil our health to get money, when it does not benefit us at all?

I am, to say the least, flummoxed. 

Sarfaraz A Rehman: What is strength?

Sarfaraz A Rehman: What is strength?:                                                        * From Wikipedia   Maria Andreyevna Rogova waddles off to the roadside cafe in...

What is strength?

                                                       *From Wikipedia 

Maria Andreyevna Rogova waddles off to the roadside cafe in emigre Paris accompanied by the forceful stranger, under huge duress, high emotion and great fear. She has just been informed her long lost daughter is in great distress and the stranger brings news of this, forcing her to abandon her fear and sit down with him. The thought which occurs to Maria is “from the strong I can protect myself. God preserve me from the weak.”  

  

Thirty plus years ago, when I first read these words in Smiley’s People, I passed them by without much thought. In later years as experience gathered, the words of John Le Carre have turned profound and have carried deeper and deeper meaning and I keep returning to these words, as they have been proved time and again. 

The characteristic of strength, is a lack of genuine fear. Not the gung-ho ‘I am a brave person and take on everyone’ variety. That is bravado; anyone can talk it up. The identification of this real lack of fear is a quiet understanding of what one is and within this capability, to live by principles, treat all as equals, be equitable and fair, have patience and show grace in all circumstances. Above all to be honest and help others, without prejudice. Such people are strong, they exude comfort and trust. They typically will go about their life with humility and contentment.  

The weak abound. Deep within they know the cracks. Cracks they hide, because they do not have the strength to face and repair these flaws. So they delude themselves. Instead a facade of power is created. They will dominate much, force much, carry this wrecking show through life damaging much. As time goes on they will become more entrenched, as the facade is established and they have to maintain it. Deeper and deeper this spiral will go and they will go stamping on their domain, creating fear rather than respect. That is the fear which Le Carre is talking about.

Of the strong there are few left, in this helter skelter, fast, humbug consumer world of ours, but wherever they are they leave much bigger footsteps, than seems possible. The weak are everywhere. Social media reveals them in droves. Trolls, bullies pushing their thoughts, shouting down others. You see them in the racists, the superior intellectual, the tough corporate hitman, the liberal beating their drum, the dogmatic reformer who rules by fear not reason.

Whenever you find someone who is genuinely strong, they will be doing something of worth, despite the struggle they are going through. Typically, this something is for others. The weak, they will have only one beneficiary, that is themselves. 

Le Carre said much in just one small sentence.

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Prejudice leaps forward

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Prejudice leaps forward: Humans are strangely self righteous and tribal about what is not in alignment with their thoughts and familiarity zone. This same though...

Prejudice leaps forward

Humans are strangely self righteous and tribal about what is not in alignment with their thoughts and familiarity zone. This same thought process is the basis of prejudice and racialism, and in more extreme cases death and destruction.

You see it starkly in human behaviour. Take a nice, suburban middle-aged woman as an example. She is quite honest and caring about people and is always ready to help others. Place her in a public area next to a scruffy, dirty youth. Watch how she reacts. I have seen this a few times at airports and  metros. The otherwise quite nice lady, will be abhorred by the disagreeable presence next to her, and wants to get away, so long as it is not construed as being rude. In the time of Trumpism, nothing is considered rude (that filter has been taken away), so more than likely the lady will change seats.

Why? Because she is now judging and rejecting the presence which is contrary to her image of comfort zone. But has the young scruffy person done someone any harm, has he committed a crime? No! That is what prejudice is. Expand it further and it becomes racialism and sectarianism. Take it a bit further, it leads to death and destruction. Notice the coloured guys who are regularly shot by police in USA, simply on racial profiling. Normally, these police personnel would sit and eat with them, but under stress  they can behave like narrow hateful beings when confronted with the out of the ordinary.

Do not be surprised that suddenly prejudice is appearing in droves in apparently very enlightened societies. The seed had always been present. But it had not been watered for several decades. Today its been watered and prepared to come out and so it is visible in tens of millions. It is going to appear more, because the genie is out of the bottle now. It takes a small time for society to deteriorate, but it can take decades to put them back on the right path again.

Similar events happened some 100 years ago and it took much death and destruction to control it. I hope this time humans find a saner and more peaceful way to put humanity back where it should be. Though my reality says it will be a long rocky road. Sadly! 

Sarfaraz A Rehman: A Concept of Living

Sarfaraz A Rehman: A Concept of Living:                                                 Br.freepik.com



 Through long contemplation and discussions, one reaches the conclusi...

A Concept of Living

                                                Br.freepik.com

Through long contemplation and discussions, one reaches the conclusion that we humans have a perception problem in life. We fool ourselves into an illusion of infallibility. Part of this is subliminally input into our brain, through  an aggressive consumer environment.

• We think we will live forever 
• Will always be healthy  
• Always have money and a job to rely on 
• Forever have friends and family
• Our bodies will always stay young
• Our looks are everlasting 
• Our brain will always be sharp and incisive
• We will always keep progressing  

Sadly “none of this is true and nothing will last”. When it is gone, it will seem like the end has come too quickly. 

      

So, we must coax ourselves to believe 

• We will die soon enough
• Our job, our money and fame will not last 
• Our friends will depart
• We will lose our family one way or the other
• We are terminal beings, we decline and disappear 

With such a belief, we “must” live life as if every moment counts. Because it does. Once gone, it will never comeback. Our end maybe tomorrow, and there is so much to do. It is a race against time to fit all the living in.   

The outline of that living is....

• A strong belief in Allah, is the best defence
• Forgive as a compulsion 
• Do not carry a grudge
• Love properly with a tender heart
• Be generous, give, give and give
• Do not fall into envy
• Speak softly (the listener is human too)
• Laugh a lot
• Read a lot

Let us think life is an adventure and leave bits of ourselves wherever we are. That way we will become eternal. 

Sadly it has taken me a lifetime to realise this simple illusion and the reality. (😏😊)

Proud of themselves

Recently, in a CNN interview, someone stated, “I am incredibly proud of myself”.

Proud of themselves! We hear it claimed so often, in recent times. In a world of seven and half billion people, the Earth being one of billions in this universe, this person is proud of himself?

His judgement is at the ratio of 1 divided by 7.5 billion people. He also happens to be 100 per cent biased, with a complete lack of objectivity. Moreover, it is based on one known event. The other wrongs committed in his life, are set aside. As is the help received along the way and the luck he has profited from. All that ends up being personalised into this one statement. Phew!

But in today’s world, it is claimed with impunity. When the door to narcissism opens, it becomes a contagion. Others feel its fine to say it. They too will set aside simple decency and humbleness and claim it. Soon, the young person sitting in front of you for a job interview, will come prepared to say why he is ‘proud of himself’.  It’s tiresome.

Narcissism is taking hold of everyday discussions. On media and social media, but also in the rooms of organisations. Unfortunately, it has a very bad side effect. Few are now ready to listen, because they are ‘proud of themselves’. It cascades into social behaviour and society is polarised. Eventually, ‘everyone is always right’.

So what happens to the decent, humble person who does not want to beat their drum. They (a vast majority, just a couple of decades ago) go into hiding. When they go into hiding, this world becomes beastly. 

Some millions of years ago, one Iblis refused a command, because he was proud of himself. It led to humans taking this arduous journey in the first place. It is humanity’s ‘one core test’, which we are failing. In the past centuries, it was just one individual in hundreds who was prone to it. Today, it resides in most of us, moves in and out of our homes, offices and malls and is on our roads. Sit back and think about the catastrophic effect of this contagion on mankind. It is coming to a major reckoning and we are mindlessly rushing towards it.

* the image is from Dreamstime.com