Simplifying Climate Change

In my environment discussions, a constant perplexing feature is that the obviously engaged listeners, know zero basics about climate change. How is this possible about a topic of world interest for over two decades?

The climate change crisis is our defining moment and to make the movement work, humanity has to be involved and active in this issue. Hence we must know what the subject is. In the ensuing paragraphs, I have tried to explain some of the basics of this worldwide crisis which engulfs us. 

Our world achieved sustainable balance over hundreds of millions of years of events, including five mass extinctions and several ice ages. This balance having been achieved, humans made their appearance. Climate motion was circular and sustainable.  

The above climate is in sustainable circular motion at the worldwide temperature average of about 15 degree centigrade. The moment we increase or decrease this average, it effects the balance of climate. A small average increase, creates huge variations.   

1. Living beings consumed Oxygen; emitted Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Trees and oceans absorbed this CO2; emitted Oxygen. This kept a balance, where CO2 stabilised at 0.03% of the atmosphere.    

2. The Earth orbits the Sun, tilted at an axis of 23 degrees. In the January-June period, the tilt brings Northern hemisphere nearer to the Sun, creating summer. In July-December period, the tilt brings Southern hemisphere nearer the Sun, creating the southern summer. Vice-versa for winters, thus keeping a balance.    

3. The Sun is our warming engine. The rays from the Sun are absorbed by our atmosphere, while some are reflected out by the glaciers (which are white). We take just enough heat. Trees are also coolants absorbing some heat and collecting water. Similarly, foliage under the sea, thrives on the heat absorbed by the oceans and creates its own balance of CO2/Oxygen.             

4. The Gulf Stream is an underwater wave, circulating around the world, bringing rain, coolness, warmth, dryness and temperature variations. Similarly, Jet streams are movement of air flowing out of the North/South, bringing coolness in the summer and cold in the winter, also dryness and temperature variation. Air movement is caused by temperature changes, gravitational effect and revolving motion of the Earth.

5. The glaciers and frozen earth are big players in this climate balance. They reflect rays (heat); create coolness; in the freeze (permafrost) a huge amount of methane and CO2 is absorbed. Over millions of years of freezing, massive amounts of these gases have thus been stored.

Now to connect all the above dots.

• Due to increase in population; overuse of hydro-carbons (petrol, coal etc); cutting of trees; CO2 levels have gone up from 0.03% to 0.04% of the atmosphere. CO2 absorbs heat.

• As CO2 increases, it causes global warming. This rise in temperature, starts the melting of the glaciers.

• As the glaciers melt they reflect less heat, which in turn causes more global warming.

• As warming rises, it effects the underwater foliage and the trees. End result, there is less absorption of CO2, leading to further heat. This is a spiralling cycle.

• The Gulf Stream and the Jet streams are effected by the rise in temperature, thus bringing climate change to the world.   

• Eventually, the heat will become so significant that millions of years of permafrost will melt, releasing the trapped methane and CO2. Methane is 25 times more potent than CO2, as a heat absorbent. Average temperatures after that, could rise several centigrade. It would bring an end to existence, as we know it. 

• Lastly, as temperature increases, all glaciers will melt and the sea waters will rise several feet. The coastal regions of the world will be decimated. For instance Manhattan will be 77% underwater. 

Where are we just now? We are at a cusp. The permafrost has still not melted, though methane is said to be releasing at faster rates than before. If we control our use of hydro carbons; stop cutting trees; stop degrading oceans; reduce our consumption; then CO2 can be halted and perhaps reversed within many generations, as science catches up. Otherwise, as most scientists believe now, the sixth mass extinction event in the Earths history has already begun.

*picture is from publicdomainpictures.net

A pivotal point in History

As Gollum struggled with Frodo at the edge of Mount Doom the world stopped. The armies of Aragorn and those of Sauron already engaged in deadly battle, heard Gandalf call out the time of reckoning is here. Hold still. A pivotal point in history had arrived. So it goes in the Lord of the Ring.

In our present real world, one has been waiting for just such a moment for decades. There have been pivotal points in history before. The moment when the world changed.  Imagine the people living at that particular time, mostly unaware that life was going to change.     

As Julius Caeser looked across from Gaul at an island which he was heading to conquer, would he have thought that his were the first steps to a British Empire on which the sun would never set? Or when Muhammad Fateh dragged his ships across land, past the Bosporus into the Black Sea, to conquer Constantinople, would he have known this was a four plus century event, which would culminate in the destructions of the First World War? Or when Archduke Ferdinands carriage trundled down the street of Sarajevo in June 1914, would the on-lookers have known that within seconds his assassination event would occur, leading to two world wars and death of a 100 million people?    

This feeling of a pivotal point in history is here and now. One feels it. Hold your breath, this world is about to change. Sadly enough, it's been coming these past three decades, but we have been blind and insensitive not to have seen it earlier.    

It is a complex matrix and the variables are many. But they are all coming into play.

- A global elite has led an economic onslaught, which has marginalised the 99%. Poverty prevails and the majority do not belong. So the poor majority are flexing their power to bring in leaders who will reverse the trend of 70 years and bring the world back to 1945.

- The baton of leadership of the West is passing and a new challenge from the East is coming. Never has the baton of domination been passed on without armed conflict. A conflict in the South China Sea is brewing. Not to mention the trade wars.

- A further conflict is shaping up in the old world. A clash of civilisation, where a secular ideology is at loggerheads with religions of the books. This presently manifests itself in the Islam versus West struggle, but actually can mutate into a Middle East conflict.    

- The various conflicts are causing refugees and starvation. Ten million refugees and twenty million starving are the highest such figures in history. 

- A technical advance which started in the late 60s with Moore's Law, is now coming to a point where artificial intelligence threatens to take over humanity's role.

- The social consequences of technology, materialism, a breakdown of traditional family structures are leading to many social challenges and the urban centres in the world are heaving with rancour, unrest and substance abuse.

- A combination of over population and material needs is driving man to produce and consume more. In five decades we have consumed 400 million years of resources. The pace of consumption is increasing and we are bordering on resource scarcity.

- The above has led to an environmental degradation which has tilted the balance nature has maintained from the beginning of time. The very existence of all beings is being threatened at the hands of rampant heat on our Earth.  

So what is coming? Maybe the best place to look at is eschatology. That seems to indicate that all the signs are pointing to an Armageddon (Malhama in Islam). A mother of all conflicts, which will lead to major destruction. This is so in all three religions of the book. The difference is that for the Jewish faith the Messiah (saviour), is considered the imposter in Islam. So even here, the religions are looking at the same events from opposite sides.  

History too is not encouraging. Civilisations last an average of 250 years. The West is reaching that. A Dominant Currency lasts approximately 90 years; the US Dollar is reaching that time frame. So a change is on the cards. A pivotal point in history is visible. Only problem is, this is the first time in recorded human history, that Man has the power to destroy the world. 

So all one can do is pray that better sense prevails and humans resort to talking and mutual agreements to resolve these conflicts.

*image is downloaded from Getty Images, as a free picture.