Simplifying Climate Change

In my environment discussions, a constant perplexing feature is that the obviously engaged listeners, know zero basics about climate change. How is this possible about a topic of world interest for over two decades?

The climate change crisis is our defining moment and to make the movement work, humanity has to be involved and active in this issue. Hence we must know what the subject is. In the ensuing paragraphs, I have tried to explain some of the basics of this worldwide crisis which engulfs us. 

Our world achieved sustainable balance over hundreds of millions of years of events, including five mass extinctions and several ice ages. This balance having been achieved, humans made their appearance. Climate motion was circular and sustainable.  

The above climate is in sustainable circular motion at the worldwide temperature average of about 15 degree centigrade. The moment we increase or decrease this average, it effects the balance of climate. A small average increase, creates huge variations.   

1. Living beings consumed Oxygen; emitted Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Trees and oceans absorbed this CO2; emitted Oxygen. This kept a balance, where CO2 stabilised at 0.03% of the atmosphere.    

2. The Earth orbits the Sun, tilted at an axis of 23 degrees. In the January-June period, the tilt brings Northern hemisphere nearer to the Sun, creating summer. In July-December period, the tilt brings Southern hemisphere nearer the Sun, creating the southern summer. Vice-versa for winters, thus keeping a balance.    

3. The Sun is our warming engine. The rays from the Sun are absorbed by our atmosphere, while some are reflected out by the glaciers (which are white). We take just enough heat. Trees are also coolants absorbing some heat and collecting water. Similarly, foliage under the sea, thrives on the heat absorbed by the oceans and creates its own balance of CO2/Oxygen.             

4. The Gulf Stream is an underwater wave, circulating around the world, bringing rain, coolness, warmth, dryness and temperature variations. Similarly, Jet streams are movement of air flowing out of the North/South, bringing coolness in the summer and cold in the winter, also dryness and temperature variation. Air movement is caused by temperature changes, gravitational effect and revolving motion of the Earth.

5. The glaciers and frozen earth are big players in this climate balance. They reflect rays (heat); create coolness; in the freeze (permafrost) a huge amount of methane and CO2 is absorbed. Over millions of years of freezing, massive amounts of these gases have thus been stored.

Now to connect all the above dots.

• Due to increase in population; overuse of hydro-carbons (petrol, coal etc); cutting of trees; CO2 levels have gone up from 0.03% to 0.04% of the atmosphere. CO2 absorbs heat.

• As CO2 increases, it causes global warming. This rise in temperature, starts the melting of the glaciers.

• As the glaciers melt they reflect less heat, which in turn causes more global warming.

• As warming rises, it effects the underwater foliage and the trees. End result, there is less absorption of CO2, leading to further heat. This is a spiralling cycle.

• The Gulf Stream and the Jet streams are effected by the rise in temperature, thus bringing climate change to the world.   

• Eventually, the heat will become so significant that millions of years of permafrost will melt, releasing the trapped methane and CO2. Methane is 25 times more potent than CO2, as a heat absorbent. Average temperatures after that, could rise several centigrade. It would bring an end to existence, as we know it. 

• Lastly, as temperature increases, all glaciers will melt and the sea waters will rise several feet. The coastal regions of the world will be decimated. For instance Manhattan will be 77% underwater. 

Where are we just now? We are at a cusp. The permafrost has still not melted, though methane is said to be releasing at faster rates than before. If we control our use of hydro carbons; stop cutting trees; stop degrading oceans; reduce our consumption; then CO2 can be halted and perhaps reversed within many generations, as science catches up. Otherwise, as most scientists believe now, the sixth mass extinction event in the Earths history has already begun.

*picture is from publicdomainpictures.net

2087

I estimate that if events were to go positively, then in some seventy years, in the year 2087, my great-great-grandchild will be in the range of 7-10 years, In-sha-Allah.       

It's a totally ridiculous piece of forward planning, in a world where Allah is Qadir and might dispose as He wishes.  But an even more audacious piece of forward planning is, I am hoping that these great-great-grandchildren would be resident either in Siberia or Northern Canada!!!   

   

There is some method to this thought process. If present trends continue, then not many places will be liveable on Earth. With Himalayan glaciers gone, Pakistan, Northern  India, Bangladesh and eastwards, plus Southern China will all be barren deserts, high temperature and not much to drink and eat. Other ice masses, Arctic, Greenland and Antarctic will also recede, causing damage elsewhere in the world. So, Africa, Southern Europe, Australia, much of USA, South America will be very unfriendly places too. Growing wheat will be a challenge, the outside temperature will be unbearable and water scarcity would be extreme. Some hardy souls will eke out a living from these places, but these would be like oases in a desert. Perhaps some areas of Northern Europe might be habitable, but it would be so overcrowded with climate migrants that one can see it being a messy place.

That is a conclusion I reached, having worked and lobbied on climate change and water for close on to two decades.  From being eternally passionate about saving humanity from its own folly, to being certain something will change, I have now become realist enough to feel we may be headed towards self-extermination. Sadly! Infact, recent forecasts from some experts suggest that the sixth mass extinction in this worlds history has already begun. 

Why this conclusion? Well most of you who will read this blog, are well aware that there is real danger on the horizon. But are you doing anything about it? You are going about your daily struggle of existence - and I acknowledge that goal in itself is a tough one - and do not spend a passing thought on what is coming just around the corner.

What we are witnessing today is, huge temperature rise in US, Europe and in Kuwait recently, trees by the road side caught fire, as temperatures reached 59 degree Celsius.  This is not normal and in the last fifteen years, average temperature worldwide have risen year on year. And let me elaborate a bit more. What we are witnessing today is the effect of our actions from the last century. The damage we have caused in the last twenty years, has still not come home to roost. This is a delayed cycle and it will be coming around soon enough.

While we doggedly go about our daily business of survival, ignoring our future, the damage to other species continues. So plants, animals, amphibians, birds, bees and sealife is all disappearing at a pace. We just ignore the fact that without this eco system, we will disappear too. Unfortunately, our climate sceptic corporates, with the oil and gas corporations at the head, are ignoring this story. They are simply playing out the same tactics as they did with tobacco. Pay politicians, lobbyists, scientists and media to create a sense of doubt, that the story is not real. The first knowledge that tobacco kills was available in the 1950s.  Sixty years later, they are still fighting a retreating battle of pro choice. Cigarettes are being consumed at a higher level worldwide, than it was sixty years ago. 

In the case of climate change, we have not got sixty years. We probably do not have even ten. We are standing at the edge of a precipice. If the people and nations of the world do not take immediate action, the battle is lost. It probably is even now. We need to do simple things. Consume less, travel less, burn less fossil fuel, use alternative energy, save water, stop cutting trees and plant them again. We need to go back to some of the basic ways of living, which served us well till the 19th century. If we do not do all this, we will be exterminated. That is why I personalised this at the beginning, in that I fear I too shall have no progeny to carry on the work of man.