Sarfaraz A Rehman: Managing by Trial and Error

Slow and sure is out of the door, experimentation, trial and error has landed.



Sarfaraz A Rehman: Managing by Trial and Error: These are turbulent and exciting times. Greenfield, startups and groundbreaking environment inevitably leading to experimentation. The...

Managing by Trial and Error

These are turbulent and exciting times. Greenfield, startups and groundbreaking environment inevitably leading to experimentation. The pace of change; speed of technology; variance in generational thinking and culture; all compel innovations. Slow and sure is out of the door, experimentation, trial and error has landed.

The displayed model is a normal trial and error loop. Repeated iterations, then implement the feedback on results, to find an efficient core. We have all used it in our work. More so, as you go up the corporate ladder. Contrary to what younger management thinks, older senior fogeys are experimenting too, because what they learned years ago is history and the ‘new’ has arrived. 

In today’s world of uncertainty and change, this is a valid method of operating. Hence, I am not writing a justification of the method, as there is no alternative. The blog is more about conditions and attributes required, to be at home in the current environment. Some thoughts are listed below.

• Knowledge of what is happening, e.g. what research is saying.
• Strong analytics, especially in the big data world.
• Listening to and observing others.
• And conversing with others.
• Not having a dogmatic outlook. Do not take things for granted.
• Chew, analyse and think. Impulse can be dangerous nowadays.
• But, also requires fast turnaround and quick decision making.
• Since there is constant change, one can be wrong! Learn to live with that and it means not having an “ego”.
• It does mean having a strong value system. Without this value system, one drifts towards wrong, as the voices are many. 

I would now take this further and add ‘countries and public office’ into the same approach. In dealing with public office, add further tenets to the ones mentioned above.

• Listening to numbers all the time. Not a one off election result.  It means a constant watch on polling insights
• It requires repeated iterations on actions, events and results looping back into ever-changing decisions.
• This leads to gradually capturing the centre ground. Repeated iterations will naturally tend towards the centre. (No wonder political parties today cannot be differentiated)
• The process and environment will look machine like.

Politics and rulers may well go this route in the future. It is something which Angela Merkel has applied over a decade and half in Germany. Looking at what our own Prime Minister is doing, I think it is what his government is also tilting towards. 

There is nothing wrong with this trial and error approach. It can be applied in government, as it can be applied in systems and organisations. We just need to be calm, controlled and follow the attributes to gradually achieve systemic efficiency.

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Time and Money relationship

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Time and Money relationship:                                                                         *worldatlas.com On reviewing insights into a time and money...

Time and Money relationship

                                                                        *worldatlas.com

On reviewing insights into a time and money relationship curve, based on information from the internet, I came to some startling conclusions. Let me caution, these are my own thoughts and may not be correct.

In a lifetime of approximately 80 years (remember today’s world average is already over 70), we essentially live it in three periods:

Pre-adulthood (25 years)

Regular work period (35 years)

Retirement (20 years)

Breaking down the above 80 years into broad activities:

Sleep (30%)

Work  (27%)

Drudgery, exercise, playing, eating, health (21%)

Own time (12%)

Spirituality/religiosity/conscience work (5%)

Miscellaneous (5%) 

'Disposable available money' during the three periods, as a percentage of a whole lifetime, is skewed dramatically towards the retirement period. This happens because you earn little in the pre-adulthood period; have many commitments in the work years; and build up a savings bank just pre-retirement (which is normally a period of less commitments/higher earnings). This is then available as disposable money during the retirement years.

Divide 'disposable available money', in terms of the spending on above named activities. The 'drudgery, exercise, playing, eating, health' activity takes more than 50% of disposable available money; ‘Miscellaneous’ over 40% (in retireiment our expenditure narrows, as our activities narrow).  So the following fascinating conclusions occur.

A) we do not have money most of our lives, while striving to obtain it - i.e. the first 60 years.

B) when we do have money, we are old, unable to use it, and a large portion is spent on health maintenance or recovery. Not on using the available money for enjoyment.

C) 40% of our money is spent on an amorphous/ambiguous ‘Miscellaneous’. This ‘Miscellaneous’ in time spent proportion, is only 5% of our lifetime and that too mostly in our later years. The conclusion derived from this statement is, that ‘Miscellaneous’ spent is either wasted or left as a legacy for our progeny. 

D) so the real question is, why do we struggle, take stress and spoil our health to get money, when it does not benefit us at all?

I am, to say the least, flummoxed. 

Sarfaraz A Rehman: What is strength?

Sarfaraz A Rehman: What is strength?:                                                        * From Wikipedia   Maria Andreyevna Rogova waddles off to the roadside cafe in...

What is strength?

                                                       *From Wikipedia 

Maria Andreyevna Rogova waddles off to the roadside cafe in emigre Paris accompanied by the forceful stranger, under huge duress, high emotion and great fear. She has just been informed her long lost daughter is in great distress and the stranger brings news of this, forcing her to abandon her fear and sit down with him. The thought which occurs to Maria is “from the strong I can protect myself. God preserve me from the weak.”  

  

Thirty plus years ago, when I first read these words in Smiley’s People, I passed them by without much thought. In later years as experience gathered, the words of John Le Carre have turned profound and have carried deeper and deeper meaning and I keep returning to these words, as they have been proved time and again. 

The characteristic of strength, is a lack of genuine fear. Not the gung-ho ‘I am a brave person and take on everyone’ variety. That is bravado; anyone can talk it up. The identification of this real lack of fear is a quiet understanding of what one is and within this capability, to live by principles, treat all as equals, be equitable and fair, have patience and show grace in all circumstances. Above all to be honest and help others, without prejudice. Such people are strong, they exude comfort and trust. They typically will go about their life with humility and contentment.  

The weak abound. Deep within they know the cracks. Cracks they hide, because they do not have the strength to face and repair these flaws. So they delude themselves. Instead a facade of power is created. They will dominate much, force much, carry this wrecking show through life damaging much. As time goes on they will become more entrenched, as the facade is established and they have to maintain it. Deeper and deeper this spiral will go and they will go stamping on their domain, creating fear rather than respect. That is the fear which Le Carre is talking about.

Of the strong there are few left, in this helter skelter, fast, humbug consumer world of ours, but wherever they are they leave much bigger footsteps, than seems possible. The weak are everywhere. Social media reveals them in droves. Trolls, bullies pushing their thoughts, shouting down others. You see them in the racists, the superior intellectual, the tough corporate hitman, the liberal beating their drum, the dogmatic reformer who rules by fear not reason.

Whenever you find someone who is genuinely strong, they will be doing something of worth, despite the struggle they are going through. Typically, this something is for others. The weak, they will have only one beneficiary, that is themselves. 

Le Carre said much in just one small sentence.

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Prejudice leaps forward

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Prejudice leaps forward: Humans are strangely self righteous and tribal about what is not in alignment with their thoughts and familiarity zone. This same though...

Prejudice leaps forward

Humans are strangely self righteous and tribal about what is not in alignment with their thoughts and familiarity zone. This same thought process is the basis of prejudice and racialism, and in more extreme cases death and destruction.

You see it starkly in human behaviour. Take a nice, suburban middle-aged woman as an example. She is quite honest and caring about people and is always ready to help others. Place her in a public area next to a scruffy, dirty youth. Watch how she reacts. I have seen this a few times at airports and  metros. The otherwise quite nice lady, will be abhorred by the disagreeable presence next to her, and wants to get away, so long as it is not construed as being rude. In the time of Trumpism, nothing is considered rude (that filter has been taken away), so more than likely the lady will change seats.

Why? Because she is now judging and rejecting the presence which is contrary to her image of comfort zone. But has the young scruffy person done someone any harm, has he committed a crime? No! That is what prejudice is. Expand it further and it becomes racialism and sectarianism. Take it a bit further, it leads to death and destruction. Notice the coloured guys who are regularly shot by police in USA, simply on racial profiling. Normally, these police personnel would sit and eat with them, but under stress  they can behave like narrow hateful beings when confronted with the out of the ordinary.

Do not be surprised that suddenly prejudice is appearing in droves in apparently very enlightened societies. The seed had always been present. But it had not been watered for several decades. Today its been watered and prepared to come out and so it is visible in tens of millions. It is going to appear more, because the genie is out of the bottle now. It takes a small time for society to deteriorate, but it can take decades to put them back on the right path again.

Similar events happened some 100 years ago and it took much death and destruction to control it. I hope this time humans find a saner and more peaceful way to put humanity back where it should be. Though my reality says it will be a long rocky road. Sadly! 

Sarfaraz A Rehman: A Concept of Living

Sarfaraz A Rehman: A Concept of Living:                                                 Br.freepik.com



 Through long contemplation and discussions, one reaches the conclusi...

A Concept of Living

                                                Br.freepik.com

Through long contemplation and discussions, one reaches the conclusion that we humans have a perception problem in life. We fool ourselves into an illusion of infallibility. Part of this is subliminally input into our brain, through  an aggressive consumer environment.

• We think we will live forever 
• Will always be healthy  
• Always have money and a job to rely on 
• Forever have friends and family
• Our bodies will always stay young
• Our looks are everlasting 
• Our brain will always be sharp and incisive
• We will always keep progressing  

Sadly “none of this is true and nothing will last”. When it is gone, it will seem like the end has come too quickly. 

      

So, we must coax ourselves to believe 

• We will die soon enough
• Our job, our money and fame will not last 
• Our friends will depart
• We will lose our family one way or the other
• We are terminal beings, we decline and disappear 

With such a belief, we “must” live life as if every moment counts. Because it does. Once gone, it will never comeback. Our end maybe tomorrow, and there is so much to do. It is a race against time to fit all the living in.   

The outline of that living is....

• A strong belief in Allah, is the best defence
• Forgive as a compulsion 
• Do not carry a grudge
• Love properly with a tender heart
• Be generous, give, give and give
• Do not fall into envy
• Speak softly (the listener is human too)
• Laugh a lot
• Read a lot

Let us think life is an adventure and leave bits of ourselves wherever we are. That way we will become eternal. 

Sadly it has taken me a lifetime to realise this simple illusion and the reality. (😏😊)

Proud of themselves

Recently, in a CNN interview, someone stated, “I am incredibly proud of myself”.

Proud of themselves! We hear it claimed so often, in recent times. In a world of seven and half billion people, the Earth being one of billions in this universe, this person is proud of himself?

His judgement is at the ratio of 1 divided by 7.5 billion people. He also happens to be 100 per cent biased, with a complete lack of objectivity. Moreover, it is based on one known event. The other wrongs committed in his life, are set aside. As is the help received along the way and the luck he has profited from. All that ends up being personalised into this one statement. Phew!

But in today’s world, it is claimed with impunity. When the door to narcissism opens, it becomes a contagion. Others feel its fine to say it. They too will set aside simple decency and humbleness and claim it. Soon, the young person sitting in front of you for a job interview, will come prepared to say why he is ‘proud of himself’.  It’s tiresome.

Narcissism is taking hold of everyday discussions. On media and social media, but also in the rooms of organisations. Unfortunately, it has a very bad side effect. Few are now ready to listen, because they are ‘proud of themselves’. It cascades into social behaviour and society is polarised. Eventually, ‘everyone is always right’.

So what happens to the decent, humble person who does not want to beat their drum. They (a vast majority, just a couple of decades ago) go into hiding. When they go into hiding, this world becomes beastly. 

Some millions of years ago, one Iblis refused a command, because he was proud of himself. It led to humans taking this arduous journey in the first place. It is humanity’s ‘one core test’, which we are failing. In the past centuries, it was just one individual in hundreds who was prone to it. Today, it resides in most of us, moves in and out of our homes, offices and malls and is on our roads. Sit back and think about the catastrophic effect of this contagion on mankind. It is coming to a major reckoning and we are mindlessly rushing towards it.

* the image is from Dreamstime.com

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Waqt ne kiya, kya haseen sitam

Sarfaraz A Rehman: Waqt ne kiya, kya haseen sitam: He walked past on the other side of the road. Had I not been looking directly at him, it would be impossible to recognise him. The heig...

Waqt ne kiya, kya haseen sitam

He walked past on the other side of the road. Had I not been looking directly at him, it would be impossible to recognise him. The height was the same, but his weight had gone up slightly. No wonder, it was more than fifteen years since I had seen him. The hairline was receding somewhat. But then he was into his mid forties.  

  

Like a magnet, I turned and followed, keeping a safe distance and also on the other side of the road. The mid-day office crowd gave me further safety, and his slow walk ensured that I could follow easily. Eventually, he walked into a  sandwich bar. It was a large place and I found my own place in a safe corner, so that I could observe him. Some of the posture was familiar, but the slight slouch, belied my image of a bubbly strapping young man, just fifteen years ago. 

   

He used to be one of my good friends, prep school onwards and we belonged to a group of seven friends, who were now unfortunately spread all over the world. Only two of us remained in our home town. Not to mention his presence. Visiting probably! I could remember the last time we met, fifteen years ago. Outside his house, a sad hug and tears in the eyes. A knowledge that this parting may be for a long time. And so it had turned out. I so wanted to go over and sit with him, but the unknown circumstances caused apprehension. 

For almost two and half decades, we had trundled in and out of each other’s house and spent nights and played cards, cricket and hockey. We tried studying together, but neither had the concentration to study long hours, in company. Till that fateful summer, when my younger cousin came to live with us. She was like his soul twin. Bubbly, beautiful and just right. I saw it happen, with some foreboding. I knew her parents and also that she was spoken for. If he bent one way, she bent the other to balance him. It was love and really true love. There was not much one could do, to help or stop it. Fate was taking its path.    

       

Alas, they were discovered and a massive fight ensued between the families which ground on through the summer. Becoming deeper and more complex. They kept meeting surreptitiously and then again got caught. That meant he could not visit anymore and nor could I go to his house. It broke them, I think. True love can do that. Few months later he was gone, taking an assignment abroad, not to return for so long. No contacts, numbers, meeting other friends. He had deliberately cut himself off from his past. 

  

What of her. Such a prodigious woman, yet broken. She went home and then inevitably, the promised proposal never happened. I think she would have run away. She did in a way. Studied further and became a researcher and led a secluded and quiet single life. There were no new loves for the likes of these soul companions. There could not be. The hair had gone partially grey and there was a slight frown behind the smile. The researcher was doing important groundbreaking work and her life was taken up in it. This was now a serious professional driven by her work, with no distractions. She had replaced him.

Long I pondered and as he got up, I made my decision. Followed him down the road and surprisingly he went into an office, which I knew. The receptionist confirmed that he was working there. I turned away for a later time, as much work waited at the office.  

  

That evening I camped outside his office, waiting for him to emerge. The shock and surprise were stamped on his face, but the smile was the same genuine one.   

  

“Abba died and I had to come back, as Amma was alone”. What was he doing. He was doing creative work and was the marketing manager. Married? Of course not. Would he like a cup of tea? No. Amma was waiting. But I could go with him. It’s not the same old house, is much smaller and in a different area. And so we spent our first evening together for eons. Much later, when comfort had returned, I asked, do you know that She is here in town and unmarried. His eyes glittered, but all he asked was is She ok? Sort of. I told him. His eyes were masked and there was no reaction. Would you like to meet? Mushkil! We are mid forties and have changed. 

That day in bed I just felt totally depressed. In the end I decided surely it is worth one try. Next day, I called her and she was soft and courteous. Yes we can meet. The surprise and masking of the eye was a mirror, when I told her. The reply was almost the same. Too late. Time has taken its toll. We have travelled different roads.   

All week my mind kept returning to them. What a waste. Surely, life can smile on these two one more time. Finally, I thought I needed to plot a meeting. How to do it though? There was no way out, but to take a personal risk. I got on the phone and one Saturday afternoon, I met him in a familiar coffee house. We chatted a bit. I was watching him when She walked in. White knuckles holding the spoon. Her look, besides the inevitable surprise, fiery accusatory eyes directed at me. Rueful smile aside, I looked at her and said “I honestly think you owe each other at least a conversation. Fifteen years of ones life is no mean time. At least drink a coffee together.” Her eyes softened and she came and sat down. After little bits of chit chat, I departed. 

That evening and night was restless. I spent much time on the roof, under the lamp, reading and hoping. Though there was little hope in my mind. Next morning late Sunday, She called to say she is coming over. I almost hoped. A slow conversation turned eventually to him. “Yes she did love him. But you know passion slows. Her career was more important now. It was all she had. Her parents are old now and she did not want to cause any further problems. Also her company was transferring her for a year to Europe on a project. That was important to her. True, we had agreed to stay in touch and chat and talk. It’s nice to talk to him.” Sigh!

I can just see that there is love, but then something unseen has come in-between. They will love from a distance, in a box. “Waqt ne kiya kya haseen sitam”. That is all I could think, Waheeda Rahman, Guru Dutt and Kaghaz ke Phool. Nevertheless, a year is a long time; she will return and I am still around to work on this. I cannot believe that there is no hope.

Simplifying Climate Change

In my environment discussions, a constant perplexing feature is that the obviously engaged listeners, know zero basics about climate change. How is this possible about a topic of world interest for over two decades?

The climate change crisis is our defining moment and to make the movement work, humanity has to be involved and active in this issue. Hence we must know what the subject is. In the ensuing paragraphs, I have tried to explain some of the basics of this worldwide crisis which engulfs us. 

Our world achieved sustainable balance over hundreds of millions of years of events, including five mass extinctions and several ice ages. This balance having been achieved, humans made their appearance. Climate motion was circular and sustainable.  

The above climate is in sustainable circular motion at the worldwide temperature average of about 15 degree centigrade. The moment we increase or decrease this average, it effects the balance of climate. A small average increase, creates huge variations.   

1. Living beings consumed Oxygen; emitted Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Trees and oceans absorbed this CO2; emitted Oxygen. This kept a balance, where CO2 stabilised at 0.03% of the atmosphere.    

2. The Earth orbits the Sun, tilted at an axis of 23 degrees. In the January-June period, the tilt brings Northern hemisphere nearer to the Sun, creating summer. In July-December period, the tilt brings Southern hemisphere nearer the Sun, creating the southern summer. Vice-versa for winters, thus keeping a balance.    

3. The Sun is our warming engine. The rays from the Sun are absorbed by our atmosphere, while some are reflected out by the glaciers (which are white). We take just enough heat. Trees are also coolants absorbing some heat and collecting water. Similarly, foliage under the sea, thrives on the heat absorbed by the oceans and creates its own balance of CO2/Oxygen.             

4. The Gulf Stream is an underwater wave, circulating around the world, bringing rain, coolness, warmth, dryness and temperature variations. Similarly, Jet streams are movement of air flowing out of the North/South, bringing coolness in the summer and cold in the winter, also dryness and temperature variation. Air movement is caused by temperature changes, gravitational effect and revolving motion of the Earth.

5. The glaciers and frozen earth are big players in this climate balance. They reflect rays (heat); create coolness; in the freeze (permafrost) a huge amount of methane and CO2 is absorbed. Over millions of years of freezing, massive amounts of these gases have thus been stored.

Now to connect all the above dots.

• Due to increase in population; overuse of hydro-carbons (petrol, coal etc); cutting of trees; CO2 levels have gone up from 0.03% to 0.04% of the atmosphere. CO2 absorbs heat.

• As CO2 increases, it causes global warming. This rise in temperature, starts the melting of the glaciers.

• As the glaciers melt they reflect less heat, which in turn causes more global warming.

• As warming rises, it effects the underwater foliage and the trees. End result, there is less absorption of CO2, leading to further heat. This is a spiralling cycle.

• The Gulf Stream and the Jet streams are effected by the rise in temperature, thus bringing climate change to the world.   

• Eventually, the heat will become so significant that millions of years of permafrost will melt, releasing the trapped methane and CO2. Methane is 25 times more potent than CO2, as a heat absorbent. Average temperatures after that, could rise several centigrade. It would bring an end to existence, as we know it. 

• Lastly, as temperature increases, all glaciers will melt and the sea waters will rise several feet. The coastal regions of the world will be decimated. For instance Manhattan will be 77% underwater. 

Where are we just now? We are at a cusp. The permafrost has still not melted, though methane is said to be releasing at faster rates than before. If we control our use of hydro carbons; stop cutting trees; stop degrading oceans; reduce our consumption; then CO2 can be halted and perhaps reversed within many generations, as science catches up. Otherwise, as most scientists believe now, the sixth mass extinction event in the Earths history has already begun.

*picture is from publicdomainpictures.net

The Slave Trade

As Europe came out of the Dark Ages, having survived the Black Death plague, it was the sailors who led the enterprise of expansion. Lisbon became centre of this expansion and in the mid 15th century was the biggest city in the world.  

To facilitate this expansion, extra manpower was required, especially as the plague had decimated European population. The first slavers went East and it was Eastern Europe which supplied the original slaves. Hence probably the word Slave (out of the ethnicity of Slavs). There are official scribes who described the first slave auctions in the first half of the 15th century in Lisbon. 

 

A major historical event changed the history of the Slavs of Eastern Europe. Sultan Muhammad Fateh, conquered Constantinople in 1453 and the Byzantine Empire collapsed. The ensuing change, shut down the Mediterranean for these Portuguese sailors. They needed to go elsewhere. These sailors must have been tough, daring, hardened people. They went South and the need to open up the Atlantic became imperative.  

    

Along the coast of North Africa they encountered black people, who were generally Muslim. In search of trade and gold, they had discovered people. People meant slaves; and so the blacks of Northern Africa Atlantic coast, became the slaves. But the sailors needed legitimacy, and so Portugal applied to the Pope for approval. This was given. The authority allowed that in the battle of the Crusades, the sailors were allowed to ‘enslave the Muslim blacks of Africa for perpetuity’. Perpetuity. No hope, no freedom, a life spent serving at the wish of others. 

The rest is common knowledge. The Portuguese went South. They made friends of Kings along the coast, traded and at the same time bought or captured humans. Lisbon in the next 50 years became the hub of all trade. It became the gateway to Europe and very soon, as the Portuguese conquered Brazil, the slaves were also sent there, to expand the outpost of the Empire.

The Portuguese who entered as traders, soon set up plantations of sugarcane, coffee, dug gold mines and raided deeper and deeper lands to find more slaves. In just a few years, they found the blacks were actually not Muslims, as the reach of Islam was not that deep. So the actual authority of the Pope was itself irrelevant. Hence, a new ideology was coined, which has prevailed through the centuries till to-date. The mantra of the West! These people are backward savages, and we are bringing ‘civilisation’ to them. 

 

Armed with this ideology Portuguese adventurers and slavers could advance with impunity. They even turned on most of the agreements with local Kings. This of course sounds familiar. We saw the same with British in India. And yes, very soon, France, England, Dutch and Belgians would join in this trade. As early as 1595 in Sao Tome, the slaves revolted, burned and pillaged the plantation and factories. So, the Portuguese the ultimate masters of the seas of the 16th century, moved their industry and slaves to Brazil.  

This was the first century of slavery and of colonisation. They go hand in hand. The wealth of European nations (and later American) was thus built on illegal human slavery, who were in turn used pre industrialisation to be the work engine. An edifice built for centuries on the back of human bondage. It is also quite coincidental, that the slavery numbers declined (and disappeared) just as mechanical factories became cheaper than human bondage. Had that not happened would we have had an Abraham Lincoln and American Civil War?

* picture from monthlyreview.org

The Generational Divide; Age Diversity!

 

When we were growing up, the difficult teen years and maybe early stages at work were testing periods. In a generation where communicating with older people was generally cautious, sometimes stilted and distant, it was always put down to the generation gap. But the good thing was that everyone involved could see the light at the end of the tunnel. Times uncountable, one heard how this problem will be over post teens, or for young employees as soon they settle down.   

 

Push forward thirty years and something has changed. Today the generational gap has expanded dramatically and really come home to roost. It is no more about a few years. All of us are engulfed in it all the time. Its more like a generational war between old and new. We saw it in action in 2016. Both the Brexit and Trump votes showed the age divide in the segments vote.   

Older people generally are less concerned about the materiality of things. It's more about culture, nationality, independence, the feeling of isolation and being disenfranchised. "We do not belong; no one listens to us; we simply do not exist. It's as if we have fallen off the back of a truck and no one has noticed". The older generation is feeling left out, perhaps technology and social media making them less relevant. Hence their is a reaction, against economics, more about culture, more about race and nationalism.  
    

The younger ones are concerned about the future shape of things. They have grown up in a networked environment and are at home in this global village. They are less worried about migration and how society is being homogenised. It's about eco systems, environment, interlinkages and how to make a prosperous future. Make the global village work together. And at the backend, how best to deal with rampant technology, use it and drive it further. There is a further change in Millennials (early 80s to late 90s birth) thinking. Research is showing that ideas about prosperity are changing. Millennials are opting for valuable personal experiences than necessarily outright ownership of property. This is part of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. As Millennials have grown up in a more secure environment, they do not necessarily feel property ownership is a purpose in life and would much rather go on a holiday and value that experience more. 

Partially this generational gap is laid on the door of demographics. In many developing countries the youth bulge is giving the under 30s a very large and dynamic say in society. This leads to a face off, between the conservative and liberal agendas. Quite the opposite, in developed societies with birth rates dropping and population ageing, it is the older population which has a significant vote bank, and it is this population which is driving a nationalistic agenda. You see that with Brexit and Trump votes.

   

What is coming is a more scary generational scenario. As the world population growth declines and comes to a standstill somewhere around 2045, the older population will become bigger in numbers. However, technology and the operations of the world, will be more readily handled by the youth. Simultaneously, the older population will start retiring in big numbers. The responsibility to run the world and provide for a growing old age population will fall squarely on the youth. As the retired population increases, it will be fewer younger people providing for more and more older people. One can actually see an 'inverse responsibility pyramid', leading to a generational conflict developing and chaos prevailing. This is all the more likely, as the then youths will not attach much value to wealth accumulation. So looking after the workings of an aging world will become a huge bind for them.

Since this eventuality of generational conflict is so obviously apparent today, governments and world organisations need to come together to carve a plan which shall stop this terrible situation developing. Part of the solution may be to reverse declining birth rates, but also will include a big increase in the retirement age and further utilisation of retired people in society (perhaps volunteer work). Also legislation to enhance inter-generational mixing and teams. Age diversity! Without such reforms and actions to stop this generational divide, it can tear us apart and cause endless harm and destruction.

*picture is from Shutterstock 

Sarfaraz A Rehman: The Mongol Miracle

Sarfaraz A Rehman: The Mongol Miracle: Early in the thirteenth century, fresh from re-establishment of authority over Jerusalem, the Muslim world could have been forgiven for...

The Mongol Miracle

Early in the thirteenth century, fresh from re-establishment of authority over Jerusalem, the Muslim world could have been forgiven for feeling strong. There was no immediate challenge. The newly established Mamluk Sultanate in Cairo, the fledgling rise of the Afghan slave dynasty in India and the strong Shah of Khwarezm in Central Asia/Khorasan seemingly in control of the then world.  

Covertly, there was disunity within the Islamic rulers and lack of the fervour, which had led the Muslims out of Arabia and taken them as far as Spain and China. This was now an aging civilisation, some six hundred years after the Prophet (saw).     

   

Unbeknownst, the greatest ever challenge to Islam to-date, was brewing at its northern borders. Temujin, a small time chieftain of the Mongol tribes was just beginning to unite the wild nomads into a beast of an army. The Mongols were to call Temujin, ‘Khan’ and history noted him as Genghis Khan. In a few years beyond 1206, Genghis Khan was to professionalise the army, combine it with the Turkic hordes and invade the great Chinese Jin dynasty. Moving with speed never seen before, he poured past the Chinese wall and sacked Beijing. 

In a few years due to Khwarezm intransigence, he turned westwards and destroyed this great empire and chased Jalauddin Shah a thousand miles, to exile beyond the Indus in India. In his wake, cities were massacred and burnt. The Islamic world simply wilted against a cataclysmic force. 

            

It was at this time that the Khan fell ill and chose his third son (there were four, all warrior like and ferocious) Ögedei as his successor. Ögedei managed the Mongol hordes for a quarter of century, without much split, and expanded conquest into Eastern Europe. However, Jochi one of the sons of Genghis, never forgave his father for this rejection and withdrew northward into safe territory away from the main hordes and he did not participate in the expansion. This small event was to save Islam over three decades later.

After Ögedei’s death, his successors turned their attention to the rest of the Muslim world, with the stated intention of destroying Baghdad (Abbasid Caliphate) and Cairo (Mamluks) and eventually wiping out Islam as a force. It is estimated in the Mongol battles and conquests from 1210 to 1260, an approximate 5% of the population of the world perished. The majority of these were Muslims. 

     

Helagu Khan, one of the successors of Ögedei, destroyed Baghdad and the Abbasid Caliphate in 1258, thus plunging the world into an age of ignorance for a period, as all knowledge was burned in the libraries of Baghdad. His army then proceeded towards Cairo. In the Battle of Ain Jalut (Goliath’s Spring) in 1260, Kitbuqa, henchman of Helagu, finally suffered defeat at the hands of the Mamluks. But only just. There was a Mongol miracle happening behind him, which saved the Mamluks and Islam.   

         

The forgotten son of Genghis, Jochi had spawned descendants. One of whom, Berke Khan had converted to Islam, when he met a Muslim caravan during his conquests. Berke Khan became a devout Muslim and when Baghdad was sacked, swore revenge on Helagu (his cousin) and to put a stop to any further conquests. The Blue and Golden Hordes of Mongols converted in significant numbers under the leadership of Berke Khan. Harried at the back by Berke and having lost strength, Helagu lost the Battle of Ain Jalut. This was the beginning, and subsequent defeats by Berke Khan weakened Helagu and he finally settled in his lands and forgot further conquests.   

The many Mongol and Turkic hordes settled all over as their power and fear declined. They slowly converted to Islam and in the next century, were to spawn the Ottoman Empire and the Tamerlane Empire (which eventually led to the Mughals of India). The Mongol conversion miracle was to sustain Islam as the dominant force for a further five centuries. But it all began from a small miracle of the disaffection of a son of the great Khan and was sustained by a chance encounter of one Prince with a caravan of Muslims.

Temujin - Genghis Khan, great leader of Mongols

Ögedei  - son and successor of Genghis Khan

Jochi - disaffected son of Ghenghis Khan  
Helagu Khan - one of the successors of Ögedei 
Berke Khan - son of Jochi 
Kitbuqa - general of Helagu 
Mamluk dynasty - rulers of Egypt, Hijaz and Syria 
Khwarezm- Kingdom Central Asia, Persia & Khorasan 

*picture is from Pinterest

Huxley or Orwell - Indulgence faces Extreme Control

One so often hears the fears related to Orwell’s ‘1984’. Especially for Liberals, their one fear is that somewhere, sometime in the future, a strong hand will control the people of this world. That control will be exercised for reasons of efficiency and betterment, but will lead to human society facing extreme subjugation.

Perhaps Orwell had a communistic society, strengthened with technology, in his mind. He definitely painted a very dark picture in that ‘1984’ world, of everything being absolutely monitored and controlled. So freedom was sacrificed for some sort of stability. 

It was a fear which was a constant in the pre-1990 world. All my peers grew up in that sort of culture, where a fear of Soviet Russia and Communist China clamping down on the worlds freedom was constant. The Vietnam war was propelled on that fear and the Mujahideen in Afghanistan became heroes on its back. The liberals never quite left that fear behind, and much of the liberal agenda today continues to be just that. A constant fear of control. They see the present semi-turn towards the far right in the West, as just such a story. Perhaps, society will take that type of regressive backwards step, to what it was a hundred years ago.    

   

As so happens, Aldous Huxley’s lesser known story of The Brave New World, is the opposite side of the coin, and would suit our world today. A picture of society of extremes, converted by human society to a pursuit of the trivial, the unnecessary. There is little bond left in humanity, because individuals are self-indulgent. Now what does all that remind one of? Does not human society run after trivia, while there is much deprivation elsewhere. Expensive indulgences, while others starve. Does not trivia and fake news control reality, restricting the very freedom which liberal society aspires to? 

Huxley saw this world of triviality, where self indulgence will be rife and be the signature of society. Our extreme consumerism, absolute involvement in creating our own image and brand, narcissistic pursuit of fame (on social media) and the mutated search for innovation (rather than for advancement, we innovate for growth of profits and out of boredom) has marginalised society. 

It’s now not about everyone, it is about the self. This has led to extreme indulgence everywhere. The fake part of the world is just a side effect which no one could imagine. Fakery (is there such a word?) has created pursuits which has warped the whole. We are spending our lives faking it.

Back in 1931, Huxley had a vision which maybe coming to fruition in our brave new world.